Wednesday, September 23, 2009

SEC Football Blogger

Posted: 23 Sep 2009 02:04 PM PDT

SEC Lines: Week 4

Yeah, last week was not my best effort. I’ll admit it. I put all of my psychic energies into proving why Tennessee was going to cover against Florida, and my performance suffered. Still 16-7 on the year against the spread, but 4-4 last week. That’s not fun.

Anyway…

Ole Miss @ -4.5 South Carolina

I know that the defense is nicked up. I know that Jevan Snead has a professional caliber arm, and the defense of Ole Miss is scary, and not just scary good. But there seems to be a new level of football with South Carolina. I do expect this to be a great game. Not like last time South Carolina played on Thursday. The home dog will get the money.

Arkansas -15.5 @ Alabama

This is going to be another one of those games that they seem to have given too many points to the Tide. Not to say that they won’t win. But the Bobby Petrino supersystem is at the peak of its powers. I see many scenarios of something akin to 42-31 for Bama. That’s not good enough. Take the points!

Ball State @ +30.5 Auburn

And here’s the deal on this. Ball State is Western Kentucky bad. I know Auburn struggles on Defense, but I’m going to keep this simple. Great offense versus an epic fail of a season? It equals a comfortable cover.

LSU +14 @ Mississippi State

Yeah, the Bulldogs have developed a certain amount of scrappy in year one under Dan Mullen. But let’s be honest here. The big plays that allowed them to steal one against Vanderbilt? They will not happen here. Take LSU and feel comfortable with it.

Florida +23 @ Kentucky

I want to take Kentucky to cover. I like their offense. Randall Cobb is magical in his game, and the Gators will send four to cover him. And Florida can struggle to score versus a team with a good secondary. But you know what? Kentucky may be game, but it’ll be something akin to a game where Florida covers it in the second half.

Arizona State @ -12 Georgia

We don’t know what Arizona State can do. They’ve played a Louisiana Hyphen and Idaho State. So they still seem to have no offense. That being said? Their defense is supposed to have some legitimacy. It won’t matter. Joe Cox to A.J. Green will make you feel comfortable in laying the points.

Ohio +20.5 @ Tennessee

I do not trust the Cromptoning. They are going to keep it conservative and hope that they don’t screw it up. They have no healthy receivers. They can run the ball and Ohio will defend it well enough to keep it close. Thus and therefore? I’m feeling like 24-7.

Vanderbilt @ +8.5 Rice

Tahe the Home Dog. Sure, they can’t stop anybody. But they’ve actually played teams with offenses (Texas Tech, UAB, Oklahoma State). Vanderbilt doesn’t have one. Sure the defense is still great, but come on. The offense brings nothing to the table. 12-7 or something.

What we know (And what we don’t) about the SEC

Posted: 22 Sep 2009 06:36 PM PDT

What we know (And what we don’t) about the SECThis league is getting goofy. I’m sure that the Big 12 conference is feeling better about their wild and crazy shootoutery from last season, because apparently, rising and firing is a stock that’s on the grow. While defense? It’s not so much.

Anyway, onto the storylines from week three.

Mississippi State: Dan Mullen will have a successful season. There was no expectation for them to win an SEC game and they got one. 3-9 is like Georgia going 13-0.
Vanderbilt: They will not go bowling. They needed to hold serve and steal a win. Mississippi State isn’t a good loss. They can’t generate offense. C’est la vie.

If Kentucky didn't have Randall Cobb, they'd finish in the Sun Belt Conference

Kentucky: If you want to know the definition of an ugly win? The Louisville game would be pictured. But they can be forgiven. The schedule gets a lot worse for the next month. Florida and Alabama come to Lexington, and then they go to South Carolina and Auburn. If they’re .500 at that point? Rich Brooks is a genius.
Auburn: Who would have thought Gene Chizik would have a chance to double his career win total by October? Not to say it hasn’t happened yet, but this weeks opponent (Ball State) has lost to Army and new Hampshire. Suffice it to say? Chris Todd’s bionic arm is making life good.
South Carolina: So they do have a nascent offense growing. And it’s making them a very interesting team on the second tier. But their test of legitimacy is this Thursday. A good team? That doesn’t officially come until October 17th and a trip to Bama.
Arkansas: Big offense and no defense. We can lock that in. They are no sleeper for championship football.
Tennessee: Imagine if they had a real quarterback? They would be scary. Never mind the fact that everybody not named me said that they weren’t going to cover a 30 point spread. But so long as it’s CROMPTON! It’s what will keep them from glory.
Georgia: Joe Cox looks like a spectacular force of ginger nature. He may have no soul, but his laser arm has given them two wins that the defense of a Utah State level tried so desperately to give away.
Ole Miss: We’ll know a lot more about them this Thursday. Right now? They’re somewhat overrated. But if they get in good against the Gamecocks? We’ll start to believe.
Alabama: That’s how you eat a cupcake. In this weird upside down world of the SEC, you need to make me believe you can put up 50. A team like Arkansas or Auburn is going to put up 45 in a losing cause. You need to show you can be beyond high-scoring offense.
LSU: Now beating Washington by a TD after Jake Locker scored a meaningless 6 to cut the lead to 8 means a whole lot more after USC crapped the bed in Seattle. The defense has been burly since. But offense? Not as much. Just keep winning and it’s all good.
Florida: So they may not exactly have a Patriot-styled dominace, and some team with a Tennessee-tough defense and a real quarterback can come up and get them. But like I said before? Until further notice, this team is running the table.

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