Saturday, September 26, 2009
SEC Football Blogger |
- LSU vs Mississippi State, Prediction Pick, 2009
- Vanderbilt vs. Rice, Prediction Pick, 2009
- Arkansas vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick, 2009
- Florida vs Kentucky, Prediction Pick, 2009
| LSU vs Mississippi State, Prediction Pick, 2009 Posted: 25 Sep 2009 10:01 PM PDT LSU vs Mississippi State, Prediction Pick, 2009 Auburn ran for 390 yards on Mississippi State two weeks ago. Vanderbilt only averaged 1.1 yards per carry against the Bulldog defense last week. The difference? Auburn actually has talent in the backfield, much like LSU. What does that mean for this week’s SEC West clash? I have no idea. And yet, rushing offense in general remains something of a mystery three games into the season. The Tigers ran for 164 yards on 36 attempts last week against Louisiana-Lafayette and only won 31-3. In the same game, Jordan Jefferson threw 25 times. That’s the kind of run/pass balance you’d expect from LSU. But 164 yards seems low, especially when you see that Charles Scott and Keiland Williams only got 12 carries and 10 carries, respectively. LSU barely won the time of possession battle (by a whole four minutes) and, though they threw for three touchdowns, the passing game failed to move the ball consistently. Worse, Scott couldn’t convert a 4th and 1. Against ULL’s defensive line. You read that right. Thus, my big question heading into LSU’s first conference game of the year is: what the hell is going on with the running game and the playcalling? Is it underwhelming because Gary Crowton’s spread tendencies are screwing up a great thing in Scott and Williams? Or is it because Scott and Williams aren’t performing well, putting the OC in a bind? Or is it because the offensive line isn’t all that good? I’m not saying the Tigers need to run it more against MSU, but the running game, and the offense in general has been singularly mediocre in three straight games. It’s never been amazing under Les Miles (killing explosive offenses, whether it be another team’s or his own, is kind of Miles’ specialty), but I want to know what the hell’s going on and I’m not even an LSU fan. As for beating Mississippi State, the usual checklist of efficiency in the passing game and explosiveness in the running game is how the Tigers will win. MSU’s offense is much better now, so 17 points won’t cut it this week, and LSU is going to need to play better defense than this guy (http://www.bustedcoverage.com/?p=20291). That said, the big key to this game is Jordan Jefferson. He needs to be a much bigger threat both throwing and running for the rest of the season, or the shadow of Russell Shepard is going to loom larger and larger. Shepard got into the ULL game and averaged 5.3 YPC on four attempts, much better than Jefferson’s 3.1. They even had Jarrett Freaking Lee come in and throw a touchdown near the goal line. The LSU passing game doesn’t scare anyone, which means no one is backing away from the line of scrimmage, thus screwing up what should be a scary good rushing attack. This might be a team more built for the Georgia Tech offense than any other in the country…except for maybe Georgia Tech (though I bet Paul Johnson would switch rosters with Les Miles in a second), but since LSU likes to spread it out a lot, Jefferson throwing has to be a much, much bigger threat against Mississippi State. So once again, I’m challenging the running backs and offensive line to truly dominate this week’s game. LSU really does need to keep the Bulldog offense off the field because they are a threat to score much more than they used to be. It’s not pretty, but they’re far better than last year. The other key is the LSU rush defense. The Tigers allowed Vandy to rush for 122 yards while MSU only gave up 29 to the Commodores. Mississippi State has a myriad of runners they use to move the ball; it’s Florida’s offense, after all. Their passing game isn’t a huge threat to LSU’s somewhat sketchy veteran secondary, but the running game is. The Tigers simply cannot allow Mississippi State to control the clock and the pace of play because the LSU offense isn’t built to handle that. We have something of an old-school Big Ten matchup happening here: LSU must run the ball effectively and defend the run effectively. Plus Jefferson cannot screw them through the air. If that happens, unless something freaky like the Colts/Dolphins game from this past Monday goes down, LSU wins on the road and silences those damn cowbells for sure. With a 12.5 point spread, I’m taking LSU and a VERY slight cover.
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| Vanderbilt vs. Rice, Prediction Pick, 2009 Posted: 25 Sep 2009 09:56 PM PDT Vanderbilt vs. Rice, Prediction Pick, 2009 Vanderbilt will be facing Rice in a must win game for them this season. They stand the chance of losing any possible momentum for the rest of this season if they do not win this game. In all honesty Vanderbilt should have no problem defeating Rice who is 0-3 on the season. Rice has a struggling defense who may have a difficult time stopping Vanderbilt, especially if the offense from the Western Carolina game shows up. This offense was able to gain more than 600 yards during that game. If Vanderbilt can replicate that, they should be able to win soundly. I expect Vanderbilt to win this game because their team needs this badly to salvage any momentum they had going coming into this season. This is a must win situation for the Commodores. I say Vanderbilt wins 34-10.
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| Arkansas vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick, 2009 Posted: 25 Sep 2009 09:50 PM PDT Arkansas vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick, 2009 Arkansas journeys to Tuscaloosa this week to face the No. 3 ranked Crimson Tide. Ryan Mallett comes in as one of the top ranked quarterbacks in the nation to face off against Greg McElroy. Statistically there is not very much difference between the two, but the question is can both quarterbacks perform at their best against these two strong SEC defenses. This will be Alabama’s biggest test so far this season. Even though they defeated Virginia Tech at the beginning of the season it was a completely different kind of match up. Virginia Tech’s offense had nowhere near the firepower that Arkansas is coming in with. Will Alabama’s defense be able to handle them is the question? If Alabama comes to play football tomorrow they should be able to defeat Arkansas. Arkansas would like nothing more than to upset Alabama after their disappointing loss last year. The weather is likely to be a factor also with rain likely playing a big part. I think it will be Alabama 31-24.
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| Florida vs Kentucky, Prediction Pick, 2009 Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:47 PM PDT Florida vs Kentucky, Prediction Pick, 2009 I say again, the Kentucky Wildcats have not beaten the Florida Gators in a football contest since November 15, 1986. Think about that for a second. For 22-plus years, Kentucky’s football program has not had a win against a team they play every year. Included in that 23-year long span are scores such as these: 73-7 (1994), 65-0 (1996), and last season’s 63-5 beatdown. With that in mind, as a Kentucky fan, what can you say when the annual “Displays of Continued Dominance by the Florida Gators” returns to Commonwealth Stadium? Is this the year we finally break through? Yeah, right. That sentiment left about five years ago. After 22-straight losses, why on earth would one even entertain the idea of winning? Sure, the idea is awfully heady, but the truth is, as long as the talent differential is so severe, Florida’s dominance of Kentucky will, in all likelihood, continue. Sure, the Gators could come to Lexington and lay an uninspired, swine flu-ridden egg, but if they don’t, I’m not expecting 22 years of frustration to be alleviated. Sure, Kentucky has some talent on its team, but is it really comparable to what the Gators have? Perhaps with some starters, but certainly not in the depth department. As a fan that’s on the losing side of all these years, I’d love to see Tim Tebow, Will Demps and Brandon Spikes contract a super-sized version of the swine flu, one that lasts just long enough to make them useless against Kentucky. Maybe then Kentucky’s chances will improve. It’s doubtful, but stranger things have happened. Perhaps this would work: The “Tebone Me” t-shirt girl seduces her man, works him over in a memorable way, all while documenting it for her AdultFriendFinder.com account. These highly-sought after pictures hit the Internet in a blaze of glory as folks clamor to see Florida quarterback’s fall from innocence. And then the media wave hits, Tebow is “disgraced” (about as much as one can be for sexing up a hot co-ed) and quits the team because of his virginal disposition Because many of his teammates are lost without his moving speeches or sideline eruptions, the Gators spiral out of control in a ball of undisciplined football. Meanwhile, Urban Meyer storms off before halftime, muttering insults about Lane Kiffin. Of course, in typical Kentucky fashion, they beef the chance given to them with an over-the-head pass from Michael Hartline that somehow lands in Major White’s hands. Naturally, White would return the pick for a game-winning touchdown, and the Kentucky football fanbase would commit a Heaven’s Gate-style mass suicide, all while cursing the city of Gainesville and whatever demon spawn gave birth to Major White. Oh, and just in case you think I’m embellishing here, every thing I’ve mentioned — save the mass suicide — has already happened once already. The only differences are the names involved. Just ask Jared Lorenzen. With all of that in mind, allow me to predict the score. Currently, the spread is 21.5 in favor of the Gators. Part of me thinks that might be a little conservative. Sure, the “that’s why they play the game” mentality comes into play, but since Kentucky’s played said game and lost 22 times in a row, I’ve even given up on that. Florida - 47
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