Friday, September 17, 2010

SEC Football Blogger

Posted: 17 Sep 2010 11:56 AM PDT

SEC Against the Spread (Week 3)

So yeah, I had a pretty good week last week. 6-2 ATS. Not to darn shabby, if I do say so myself. Of course, Week 1 I was 5-4 (and I do not project any of the FCS nonsense, so Ole Miss was not one of the 4 losses. Though since UNC did not beat LSU outright, that is one of the 4). As for week 3? I’m still counting Mississippi State over LSU as a win, I’m saying Auburn beats Clemson, but does not cover the 6.5 points, and my last post has Arkansas over Georgia.

FCS walk of shame goes to South Carolina.

Akron vs. Kentucky (-25)
Please, Gardner-Webb just took out Akron in the Rubber Dome or whatever they call it. Kentucky will have this game won and covered by halftime. 49-0.

Florida (-16) at Tennessee
Quite like last week, it will be a game where shower discipline will keep it close for a good 20-25 minutes. But Jeremy Demps will save them again. Win and cover. 33-14.

Alabama (-26.5) at Duke
The Dukies gave up 50 to Wake Forest. Alabama’s offense is better. And Marcell Dareus is back this week. So odds are Bama isn’t gonna give up anywhere near 40. 56-7.

Vanderbilt at (-14) Ole Miss
Maybe Ole Miss is just not that good. Maybe the loss of Rishaw Johnson is just another case of how Ole Miss is coming apart at the seams. I mean, they didn’t cover against Tulane.

But then again? They’re playing Vanderbilt. Their defense is fully healthy. And Vanderbilt showed last week their offense is clicking just like they did last year. My gut wants to say Vandy gets the cover. My head knows Better. Ole Miss 20, Vanderbilt 3.

Arkansas vs. Georgia, Prediction Pick 2010

Posted: 17 Sep 2010 11:25 AM PDT

Arkansas vs. Georgia, Prediction Pick 2010

Like I said in my last post, this is a backs to the wall game for Georgia. An 0-2 start in the SEC is an invitation for the seat to get hotter for Mark Richt and the panic button to be hammered down. Arkansas has been quietly impressive in the first two weeks. Going to Athens is their first test by any stretch.

Last year Ryan Mallett tied an SEC record with 5 passing touchdowns in a losing cause as the Arkansas defense got torched for 52 points in one of Joe Cox’s better performances. It goes without saying that the defenses will have much better days.

Especially when you consider both offenses are likely to be missing integral parts. Dennis Johnson is ruled out for the game with bowel issues. And A.J. Green is still being jobbed by the NCAA. In terms of all that? While Dennis Johnson is a valuable asset on returns and in the run game. Throwing is where the Hawgs shine. This gives them a certain advantage.

In fact? If they take care of the ball, I don’t see how they lose. A part of the reason why they didn’t put up massive amounts of points is because they’re already up to 4 turnovers (with an additional 4 fumbles that they didn’t lose). If Georgia is to win the game? They will (obviously) have to win the turnover battle.

If this was a neutral-site game? This would be a pick ‘em. As such, Georgia is favored by three points. That being said? Arkansas still has multiple talents in the backfield that could provide a reasonable facsimile of a Marcus Lattimore effort.

Arkansas wins. 28-24.

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