Friday, September 24, 2010

SEC Football Blogger

SEC Against the Spread: Week 4
Auburn vs. South Carolina, Prediction Pick 2010
Arkansas vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick 2010

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 01:02 PM PDT

Chad Bumphis is the favorite for the first time in his college life.

It was a very good week for me. Outside of the fact I can’t pick an Ole Miss or LSU game, I was unbeaten. 5-2 on the week. 16-6 overall. I am strong like bull. GET ME A GREEN SCREEN AND A TOUT SHEET!

As for this week? Obviously I pick South Carolina and Arkansas to cover. One will be in a fun game? One, not so much.

Other games?

Georgia (+2) at Mississippi State
Really, the Bulldogs are the favorite in an SEC game. But the fact of the matter is that this is Georgia’s back to the wall game. They have to put it all on the line. 0-3 in the SEC is a fate worse than death.

Fresno State (+2) at Ole Miss
They say that you cannot run picks based on emotion. And that goes for here too. Fresno State is a legitimately good team that may be the only thing standing between Boise State and the most polarizing issue this side of Christine O’Donnell.

Kentucky at (-14) Florida
Okay, okay, fine. I’m not man enough to pull the trigger. I admit it. Kentucky looks like they could actually roll up and take the scalp. I know I said Kentucky 35, Florida 31. But I have no courage. Florida wins and covers.

UAB at (-14) Tennessee
Tennessee plays scrappy. And while UAB had to fight hard to beat a Sun Belt team, that only gets them to .500. Tennessee wins and covers.

West Virginia (+10) at LSU
I’m not saying that LSU is gonna lose this one, like they didn’t in Week 1 or Week 3. But I think Noel Devine is the sort of guy who is going to have a game where he transcends his opposition. Prime time is as good as any. Say 30-21 LSU? I can.

Auburn vs. South Carolina, Prediction Pick 2010

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 12:20 PM PDT

Auburn vs. South Carolina, Prediction Pick 2010

In a previous post, I made mention that this was the Hipster game of the week for the SEC. Kind of obscure, maybe you heard of it? Unfortunately, this comes with a heavy heart for South Carolina. Kenny McKinley was a member of the team for most of the team. And his passing can’t not be painful.

For me, this game becomes tough to predict. Death affects all people differently. And you could see the team come together to make sure that this game is wonfor Kenny. Or you could see this team get blown off the ball. Either reaction could happen. Neither one could be faulted.

But straight up? South Carolina seems like they’ve got this. The Gamecocks have been living large off of being old school. Running hard and stopping the run. Auburn’s kind of done the same thing as well.

As such? We need to go to tertiary sorts of stats. An example? South Carolina has generated good run stats despite the fact that they cannot run a pass blocking situation. And Auburn is generating sacks. Antoine Carter and Nick Fairley are on pace to combine for 40 sacks right now. South Carolina is on pace to give up 36.

Conversely, South Carolina has been able to get a turnover or two when they need it. And Auburn has had some problems taking care of the ball. Stephon Gilmore may decide things in some form or fashion again. So yeah. Evenly matched teams.

The line is -3 for Auburn. This is not gonna be an easy one for the players as well as the fans. Lots of defense, lots of hitting. Heart versus head? I think I’ve got to go with Auburn to win, but not cover. Auburn 14, South Carolina 12.

Arkansas vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick 2010

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 11:54 AM PDT

Arkansas vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick 2010

This week is fixing to be one of the great weeks in the SEC. There are two big games and a potential third that could be very interesting. As such? We’ll start today with the obvious game of the week. #1 Alabama travels to #10 Arkansas.

Now, in terms of history, this has to favor Alabama, even in the dark days of Mike DuBose, Alabama always took down the SEC Opener. And last year, Alabama made Ryan Mallett’s life a living hell. But that being said? There’s something that just feels different about this game.

Why? Because the pass rush of Alabama hasn’t shown up yet. They’ve been crushing people. But in fairness, Alabama hasn’t played someone in their weight class quite yet. And if you’re not getting sacks on San Jose State? There is problem.

I grant you the premise that Alabama’s pass defense has been strong, but they’ve not faced a quarterback quite like Mallett yet. And if Mallett has time to throw? He will most definitely slice the Alabama secondary for over 275 yards and three scores. And if you add to that the fact that even with Dareus, the Crimson Tide have been able to be run on, Arkansas is getting 30 points again.

Arkansas? Their defense seems improved from last year. They put 6 sacks on Georgia and were at least competent in stopping the ball. That being said? Alabama’s offense puts up a lot of points. And Georgia put up 24 points on them without the threat of A.J. Green.

All in all? Alabama’s coming in getting roughly 7 and a half. And it does sound about right. This will be a shootout. This will be fun. Alabama 41; Arkansas 34.

So yeah, Arkansas covers…barely.

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