Friday, October 8, 2010

SEC Football Blogger

SEC Prediction Picks Games of Lesser Importance Week 6 2010
South Carolina vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick 2010
Florida vs. LSU, Predicition Pick 2010

SEC Prediction Picks Games of Lesser Importance Week 6 2010

Posted: 08 Oct 2010 12:20 PM PDT

He's stunned. Explicably.

SEC Prediction Picks Games of Lesser Importance Week 6 2010

If you’re so inclined, this is a week for seemingly easy money. Florida being favored by 14 is a ridiculous sum. A coach with less guts than brains and LSU’s talent covers that. And Alabama being only favored by 3 is a joke and a half.

First off? Georgia is a three touchdown favorite against Tennessee as they come in between the hedges. Georgia got blown out last year and have lost 4 of 6 versus the Vols. I’d bet my hypothetical house that the Volunteers cover. Win? Maybe not.

Next? Arkansas taking on Texas A&M in Jerryworld. The Razorbacks are 10 point favorites and while Texas A&M QB Jerrod Johnson will manage to get points. He is rather mercurial. And if the Razorbacks can pick off the Efficient Greg McElroy? Jerrod Johnson’s gonna get picked for six. Take Arkansas. Win and cover.

Third on the agenda. Vanderbilt versus being a 17 point favorite. A terrible Eastern Michigan’s come to Nashville. And as such? I’m inclined to say they get the win and cover. Eastern Michigan couldn’t stop Ohio.

In the most surprising result in comparison to the preseason preview, Houston is a ten point home dog to Mississippi State. But with UCLA throwing knockout blows to Case Keenum and Cotton Turner? They’ve repurposed themselves into a running offense behind Bryce Beall. Right where Mississippi State wants them.

And as for the return match between Kentucky and Auburn, here’s a fun fact. Auburn’s home margin of victory totals? 21.5. Auburn’s road win margin? 3. They’re favored by 16 against the Wildcats. Sure, War Damn Eagle’s going to win. But that’s a ridiculous number. Kentucky usually can move the ball with some alacrity, and as such, they cover.

Last Week: 2-4
Overall: 21-14

South Carolina vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick 2010

Posted: 08 Oct 2010 11:45 AM PDT

Can Stephon Gilmore shock the world?

South Carolina vs. Alabama, Prediction Pick 2010

So remember when I said that the rumors were that Alabama’s offense had the potential to be the best offense in its history. So far, that’s been incorrect. Not to say that they’ve been terrible. Their passing game was never intended to be great. But some expected them to be putting up 40-45 a game.

What does that have to do with this game? Not so much. Just noticing that even with games against San Jose State and Duke, the best these guys can do is good. And good offenses have down performances. Because on the sheer numbers? Alabama has this game on lockdown.

South Carolina’s offense has had moments of greatness, but the insistence of Spurrier that Stephen Garcia could lose his job at any moment is not without cause. The offensive line is a sack machine and Garcia still gives up the turnovers. Garcia will get time to throw this week. And odds are? He’s going to need it.

Why? Because Alabama’s going to score points. South Carolina’s going to get to McElroy once or twice, but the floor of Alabama’s point total level is between 24-28 points. And the defense that everybody thought was going to be a weakness has come to play this year. Figure on them laying out to stop Marcus Lattimore.

How can South Carolina win this game? They need three defensive big plays. It can be a sack, a turnover, maybe even a Stephon Gilmore return. But they need to turn defense into offense in some form or fashion if they’re gonna get this done.

Will they? I think they’ll get one. And Marcus Lattimore will get one. And they’ll hold Alabama at a level near their floor. It’s not going to be a bad loss for the Gamecocks. But it will be a loss. Alabama 31, South Carolina 17.

Florida vs. LSU, Predicition Pick 2010

Posted: 08 Oct 2010 10:45 AM PDT

Florida vs. LSU, Predicition Pick 2010

So, remember how I said that last week was the hipster game of the year between Auburn and South Carolina? This week has the dadaist game of the year. Why is it so dada? Because this game’s artistry is totally going to be in its ugliness.

LSU’s passing offense is something that resides in the land of option offense and terrible quarterback play. Put it this way, they may as well move Shepard back under center and run a lot of option with Stephen Ridley. It’s the only way that they seem to be able to matriculate the ball down the field.

Florida’s run defense has been decent. Though the step up in weight class from Kentucky to the Road Warriors-esque tag team of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson leaves me to wonder if there’s a while to go before they hit their real level. But they could easily put 9 speedsters in the box and dare Jordan Jefferson to throw.

Though it’s not as if Steve Addazio has a real running game to speak of either. He talked about the 5 yards per carry his offense has been getting in non-Alabama games, but this team is 65th overall in rush offense, even with Jeff Demps and Trey Burton getting the grape job helmet sticker. LSU’s rush defense may not be Top 10. But Jeff Demps is still dinged up.

That equals the one big play element of their offense won’t be in Ben Hill Griffin. And LSU’s secondary has shaken off an overconfident start against UNC to prove their legitimacy as one of the better major secondaries in the nation. Both teams defense are going to come to play. Both teams offenses likely will be bottled up.

So what’s the X-Factor? Pat Patterson. In a way, yes. Field position will be a key in this game. But would you believe it’s gonna come down to a WR Coach? Let me explain.

Billy Gonzalez was Florida’s WR Coach last year. And he was seething in regards to Addazio’s promotion to offensive coordinator. And not without cause in terms of Addazio’s performance. Turns out, he left Florida via a post-it note. To go to LSU. So in terms of prep work? Their defense will be ready.

Though history would dictate otherwise, LSU has a real shot in this game. Les Miles coaching style has him dancing between raindrops in recent weeks. And this is the game that they’re going to be most ready for. The spread is Florida by 14. Neither team’s going to score 14.

LSU 11, Florida 10. Gainesville will be an Upset City.

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