Friday, October 22, 2010

SEC Football Blogger

Week 8 Prediction Picks, Rest of SEC, Including Alabama vs. Tennessee

Posted: 22 Oct 2010 05:00 PM PDT

Sad Crompton is Sad.

Week 8 Prediction Picks, Rest of SEC, Including Alabama at Tennessee

So yeah, last week was flipping terrible. I know it’s not gonna matter in the long view, but I’ve been disappointing in the long view. 1-4 last week and 26-21 overall. I would not be making any money overall.

Previously on SEC Football Blogger?

Florida has a bye.
LSU will cover against Auburn (right?)
Kentucky is enough of a home dog vs. Georgia to cover.

UAB +19.5 @ Mississippi State

So guess what? UAB has a decent run defense. But you know what else? Mississippi State is rolling right now. And it is only a question of whether the Bulldogs can cover? Odds are, no. Florida’s run defense was able to manage to stop them in the second half.

Add four points for the game being in Starkville, and add seven points for conference affiliation. I’d call it Mississippi State 21, UAB 7.

Alabama -16.5 vs. Tennessee

The Fourth not third Saturday in October usually can be something interesting. A poor penalty call and Terrence Cody was the only reason why the Tide rolled onward. This year? Alabama is rolling on rims if their season has been a metaphysical car.

But that being said? Tennessee’s offense is Penn State levels of bad. And Alabama’s offense is decent. Alabama’s defense is decent as well. And yet? Tennessee’s defense is comparable to Utah State. Seems like a 24-3 game for Alabama.

Over/under on calls of you can throw the records out on this one? 17.5

Ole Miss +10 @Arkansas

Fact 1: Ole Miss and Arkansas are allowing similar yards per play on defense. And both defenses have disappeared for quarters at a time. Fact 2? While Arkansas does generate about a yard and a half of offense more a play, Ryan Mallett’s still dinged up. They’re gonna roll with him. But he’s dinged. Fact 3? Arkansas has nothing to play for and Ole Miss needs every win it can get.

Fact 4? The Right Reverend is 2-0 versus his former team. I’ll stop short of saying they’ll get to 3-0. But obviously, a cover scenario is not out of the question.

South Carolina -12.5 @ Vanderbilt

The problem with Vanderbilt covering is the simple fact that the great majority of their offense is tied to that Eastern Michigan game. They’re a terrible team at present. And Steve Spurrier’s an angry Steve Spurrier. Vanderbilt may control their own destiny, but that’s gonna last roughly 15 minutes.

Kentucky vs. Georgia, Prediction Pick 2010

Posted: 22 Oct 2010 03:29 AM PDT

Kentucky vs. Georgia, Prediction Pick 2010

If you’re asking me to explain why I’m featuring this post? It’s because two SEC West teams aren’t going to play for the championship. And right now, both teams here may be on the outside looking in? But both teams are far from out of it.

And that being said? This is going to be a fun game to watch. Both teams can throw effectively and defend the opponents tossing the pigskin in roughly equal measure. Both teams generate the same amount of yards per play. Both teams have generated the same amount of turnovers. Both teams are going to be rolling without their top running back for reasons injury (Derrick Locke) and extralegal (Caleb King).

That’s a part of the reason why this game is interesting. Neither team’s run game has been so much with the rushing this year. For a team returning 10 starters? Georgia having the 64th best rush offense is a disappointment. It also explains why Georgia’s Red Zone offense has been so inefficient this year. They’re 28 for 32 in the Red Zone, but 10 of them have been field goals. Moving the ball is not going to be a problem for the Dawgs, but punching it in might be.

Then again? Kentucky’s only allowed 6 sacks in seven games this year. And most of Georgia’s pass rush strength is directly proportional to the performance of one Justin Houston. Take him out of the game and Suddenly Georgia’s front seven’s pass rush becomes very pedestrian.

And as playmakers go? Kentucky’s fine without Locke. The Alcoa Assassin has accounted for 12 touchdowns in a cheese biscuit rampage. Hartline’s been efficiently professional. And I’m sure Kentucky’s football team did a comedy skit based on Chris Matthews’ name, though he’s been a legitimate threat with his 33-482-6 so far on the year. So I say ha to anyone who would deign to believe that they won’t move the ball.

But that doesn’t mean they can win without scoring at least 35 points. Georgia is going to move the ball on Big Blue. Goes without saying. A passable run game and Aaron Murray’s going to get untracked. And Kentucky has actually made one red zone stop. All year.

So yeah. Kentucky is going to have to put up about 35 to win. They can. But I just don’t see it. Homecoming would be a heartbreaker if Kentucky cared about football.

Georgia 33, Kentucky 31

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