Thursday, October 28, 2010

SEC Football Blogger

Mississippi (Ole Miss) vs. Auburn, Prediction Pick, 2010

Posted: 28 Oct 2010 01:38 PM PDT

Mississippi (Ole Miss) vs. Auburn, Prediction Pick, 2010

The Right Reverend is a tricky sort. Just when you think he has a good team, he’ll lose to a 6-6 South Carolina. And when he’s got a down year? He’s good for one remarkable upset. Outside of Cam Newton, there’s reason to believe that Auburn is merely mortal. Can we see an upset?

Usually, the cosmic forces that coagulate into an upset involve the lack of whispers. South Carolina took down Alabama with help from people who discussed that Alabama’s lone test was the Iron Bowl, as an example. And Auburn just went through Arkansas and LSU. There’s a letdown happening here, right?

Well, three things will have to happen.

1) Jeremiah Masoli has to respond. Last weeks performance was classic Masoli. 300+ yards throwing and almost 100 rushing. Auburn’s back seven are wounded right now. Ole Miss has a defense that’s going to give up plenty of points. Cam Newton is close to lapping the field as a Heisman Trophy candidate.

Masoli doesn’t have to outplay Newton, but he has to show up. He has to counterpunch.

2) The Nick Fairley problem. Nick Fairley is a disruptive force. He’s the player reason why the run defense is strong. And Ole Miss? They’re playing A.J. Hawkins and Michael Brown at Center and one of the guards. Two freshmen. If LSU couldn’t do it dot dot dot?

3) Ole Miss must close their turnover gap. Currently, they reside at -3. They have to use their defense to make further offense in order to play shocker of the world.

Auburn’s going to be Auburn. A lot of Cam Newton. A dash of Michael Dyer and a pinch of Onterio McCalebb, and at least 4 trips to the Red Zone. Simple, efficient, and enough people don’t believe that this can keep working that they’ll bring their best.

So does Ole Miss have enough to challenge that? No. They’ll keep it relatively close. Masoli will throw plenty of counter punches. But too much Cam Newton and that whole second key to the upset? That’s not going to happen.

Auburn 41, Ole Miss 28.

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction Pick, 2010

Posted: 28 Oct 2010 10:28 AM PDT

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction Pick, 2010

Dan Mullen has to be the best non-Cam Newton related story in the SEC right now. In only two years, he’s turned a moribund program into a tough out to the elite and a likely winner against everybody else. This week, the cheese biscuit fueled Randall Cobb leads the Wildcats into Starkville. Can the Bulldogs get six straight wins going into the bye?

Short answer? Yes. Bold answer? Yes.

If you wish to ask why? I’m going to be boring and pedantic with the logic, but it boils down to a simple reason. Kentucky can’t stop the run and they won’t start the run.

Vick Ballard is going to have his best day of the season. Why? Kentucky is 89th against the run, a tie for 84th in terms of yards per play, next to last in Red Zone defense, and 112th overall in terms of Red Zone touchdowns.

Marcus Lattimore had 212 yards of total offense and three scores against Kentucky in little more than a half. Vick Ballard’s going to be fixing on fewer yards, Chris Reif is a run threat after all, but I would be surprised if he does something less than 160 yards and three scores, even if his ankle’s still dinged up.

And unfortunately, Kentucky doesn’t have a runner to respond to this. Derrick Locke is going to be out for his third straight game. And as such? The only power of the backfield is gone and like South Carolina and Georgia, Mississippi State can stop a lot of people.

(They did make Cam Newton look merely good, after all.)

It looks like this will be a similar game to last week for Kentucky. Mississippi State will be comfortably ahead for most of the game, but their pass defense has some give to it. This means we’ll see Mississippi State winning, but they will not put them away.

Mississippi State 38, Kentucky 28.

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