Thursday, December 30, 2010

SEC Football Blogger

Capital One Bowl Prediction Pick: Alabama vs. Michigan State 2010
Outback Bowl Prediction Pick, 2010: Florida vs. Penn State
Gator Bowl: Michigan vs. Mississippi State Prediction Pick 2010

Capital One Bowl Prediction Pick: Alabama vs. Michigan State 2010

Posted: 30 Dec 2010 04:26 PM PST

Capital One Bowl Prediction Pick: Alabama vs. Michigan State 2010

If you were to ask me which game was the most interesting of all the Non-BCS games, I would point to this one. I grant you that the spread doesn’t agree with my premise, but hear me out on this one. I have this notion.

See, teams with a strong running game or a superstar running back were the teams that gave Alabama trouble. Your Marcus Lattimores and Stevan Ridleys made themselves quite useful against Alabama. And I’ve seen what Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell can do first hand. They will be able to do something.

In turn? It will make Kirk Cousins efficient. He’s one of those quarterbacks who won’t make many mistakes and matriculate the ball down the field with a decent level of skill. Dre Kirkpatrick may shut down a part of the field? But he won’t stop Cousins, not completely.

Another factor is the fact that Michigan State’s problems come when they’re in a late game situation against a lesser team. They play Purdue? They sleepwalk. They’ll be up for this one.

Not to say that Alabama won’t be. This is going to be the last game for the triplets that restored Alabama to greatness. (Yes, Julio Jones IS a junior, but come on.) And while Michigan State is very good at stopping the run, Greg McElroy is going to get time to throw the ball, and somebody’s going to be resolved to be making with the catches and the yards. They will score points.

And it’s not as if their defense is shoddy, either. Courtney Upshaw, Mark Barron and Marcell Dareus are all active defenders. I think Michigan State is going to get something done here. But they’re not going to blow some suckers out on New Years Day.

So what’s it all going to come down to? Can Michigan State get to the Red Zone? Michigan State was spectacular inside their opponent’s 20. And 70 percent of the time they would get six when they got there. Alabama may be great at stuffing teams inside the 20, but if Sparty gets there?

They can get it in. I still say Alabama is going to win. But it’s not going to be a shocker if I’m wrong. Alabama 31, Michigan State 28.

Outback Bowl Prediction Pick, 2010: Florida vs. Penn State

Posted: 29 Dec 2010 11:12 PM PST

Outback Bowl Prediction Pick, 2010: Florida vs. Penn State

In regards to the matters from this game? They should consider themselves lucky that this will be the coach of the decades final game as Florida coach. Because in all honesty? I don’t know how interesting or good the on field product is going to be.

You look at Penn State and you say to yourself that this team is boring. Defensively, they can be had over the top, but most of their drives are in the vanilla, bend but don’t break variety. Florida’s offensive struggles may continue going into this game. But their ability to run the ball somewhat does go into their favor.

The kicking issues? Not as much. They’re 116th in the country in converting in the Red Zone. You’d think the issues of Caleb Sturgis and Chas Henry would be at the forefront? But the fact of the matter is they also screwed up a lot inside their opponent’s 20.

The fun stat? In regards to penalties and discipline? Florida has twice as many penalties called on them than Penn State. It’s true. Penn State has 4 a game. Check CFB Stats. I’ll wait.

But the fact of the matter about it is that while Mike McGloin is a fine college quarterback, he’s been stopped by strong defenses before. And while the Gators don’t pass rush with real great aplomb? Ahmad Black is a force of nature. And they will limit Penn State’s scoring chances.

But the question remains, was the Gators offensive struggles based solely on Addazio’s inability to make spectacular athletes go awesome, or did it go deeper? Will Demps has not been the same since his week three injury, which has left Chris Rainey as really the one guy you need to stop. After he returned from suspension, when he was limited, the Gators lost.

I figure this game will be low-scoring. I figure this game will be the sort of game where there will a lot of punts. Florida will get a lot more yardage. But conversions will be a problem. All in all? Urban is about the only one going home a winner by watching this game. Florida 17, Penn State 13.

Gator Bowl: Michigan vs. Mississippi State Prediction Pick 2010

Posted: 29 Dec 2010 07:58 PM PST

Will they win this one for Bumpy?

Gator Bowl: Michigan vs. Mississippi State Prediction Pick 2010

The fun part of New Years Day? If you can wake up at noon, you will see the Big 10/SEC challenge. On the ESPN family of networks, you can swap between three Big 10 teams take on 3 SEC teams. And unlike other games that I’ll get to later? This is one that will be mighty fun to watch.

Why? Two words. Denard Robinson. You may have heard the breathless comparisons of him to Michael Vick after the Wolverines got off to a ridiculous start. And for multiple reasons, it stopped. But the fact remains that Michigan averaged 500 yards a game of offense and Denard Robinson was the cause 330 of them.

Got to respect that. It’s more offense than Cam Newton generated on his own. But that being said? There’s a reason why such a special talent is in a marginally decent bowl instead of a power bowl. In a word? Defense.

A list of the Defensive Stats that Michigan ranks 100th or worse follows here.

Scoring Defense (t101st)
Pass Defense (111th)
Total Defense (107th)
1st Downs Allowed (101st)

Add to that a 94th ranking in Rush defense, a tie 95th in getting sacks, and a tie for 98th in yards allowed per play, and you’ll see why exactly Mississippi State has a real shot here.

Because they can move the ball with a certain amount of perspicacity and vigor. Granted, Chris Reif isn’t going to make too much damage with the injury to Chad Bumphis, despite the aforementioned secondary. But the strength of Mississippi State’s offense is in Vick Ballard punching it in and Chris Reif doing a Joe Webb impression.

And again, Michigan’s defense is terrible.

Though with all that being said? Despite the anchoring presence of Chris White, the defense of Mississippi State has problems with a quarterback who can throw with a modicum of skill. But that being said? Michigan is not a disciplined team in regards to taking care of the ball, and the Bulldogs won’t break in the red zone.

So what does it all mean? It means a bit of a shootout. Roy Roundtree will have a good piece of business. And we’ll see the game go down to the last possession. But Dan Mullen wants it more.

Mississippi State 35, Michigan 31

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