Tuesday, January 4, 2011

SEC Football Blogger

Sugar Bowl Prediction Pick: Ohio State vs. Arkansas, 2011

Posted: 03 Jan 2011 10:21 PM PST

Sugar Bowl Prediction Pick: Ohio State vs. Arkansas, 2011

To write out a prediction pick on this game is a bit of a challenge, what with the controversy that has struck the Buckeyes in recent weeks. You have five Buckeyes players, important parts of the team, who thanks to the machinations of Sugar Bowl officials are going to be able to start and play in this game. If they start, or play. Terrelle Pryor may not do either, especially when you consider the fact that he’s been test driving cars for long distances at high rates of speed.

But with that disclaimer, we are going to go with the disclaimer that Joe Bauserman won’t be playing. And the next 300 or so words will matter.

For the Big Ten, 2011 has been off to a real bad start. And the one thing between them and pure irrelevancy is Ohio State versus an SEC team. On the surface, a bad match-up. But when you go deeper? Can Arkansas complete a clean sweep for the SEC against the Big Ten?

Well, the major weakness for the Razorbacks throughout the season was teams that could run on them. They got better with it as the year went on (51st in the nation for November games in comparison to 66th overall), but the times their defense had struggles were with teams that would spread the ball out and run the ball in that form. Auburn gashed them. Mississippi State gashed them. Heck, if Ole Miss had a competent defense they would have gashed them as well.

What I’m saying is that if you’re a team with an athletic quarterback who can make plays with his legs, you have a reasonable belief that you’re going to stay in the game with Arkansas. If and when Pryor decides to run with his legs? He and Boom Herron would be able to get untracked. If they can run the ball 50-60 times? They can win.

Especially when you consider the fact that despite the hilarious in hindsight off the field context, the Buckeyes play a more disciplined style of football. Arkansas still lets themselves get bogged down with penalties, and Ohio State is much better in regards to taking care of the ball and generating turnovers. They try to do an impression of what Mississippi State did? They have the horses to generate victory.

But that being said? With the emergence of Knile Davis, the Razorbacks are sort of a bizarro version of the one team that beat the Buckeyes this year. Whereas Wisconsin won with a powerful running game and an efficient passing game where the tight end figured a prominent role? The Razorbacks use Davis to balance out a powerful passing game that has D.J. Williams in a prominent role.

Sure, Greg Childs won’t be playing, but the Razorbacks have been able to get a decent amount of production from a lot of people. The Buckeyes can tamp down a good passing game, but if Mallet takes the open man, be it Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton, or the aforementioned Williams? Knile Davis will be all the more dangerous.

And I guess that’s what it comes down to. If Ryan Mallett doesn’t throw a pick, the Razorbacks will win. Knile Davis will probably get 100 yards and a score. Mallett will probably throw for two touchdowns, and Joe Adams can get one through a punt return. They’ll bog down once or twice. But it’s their game. They will win it.

Arkansas 34, Ohio State 24.

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