Saturday, November 20, 2010

SEC Football Blogger

Week 12 Prediction Pick Briefs (featuring Ole Miss at LSU)

Posted: 19 Nov 2010 06:54 PM PST

13 Men won't get Nutt the upset.

Week 12 Prediction Pick Briefs (featuring Ole Miss at LSU)

Kind of a short week for the SEC this week. 3 teams have the bye, two teams have FBS games (one has played. Did Alabama win?) And I was too busy to care as much as I did last week with all that from Cam Newton. I came to my conclusion last week. And kids had to learn darn it!

Anyway. Last week was marginal. 3-4 to get to 39-31 overall. 56 percent. So yeah.

In other projectionary…
Alabama beat Georgia State. Probably.
Florida is being root on to lose to Appalachian State. And that won’t happen. Because hope is dead.
And Auburn, Georgia, and Kentucky are on the bye.

Ole Miss vs. LSU -16
In terms of the diaspora of home versus road? Ole Miss is as terrible as a MAC team outside of Oxford. LSU is +2.5 in home/road yards per play margin versus Ole Miss. Home/road scoring margin? LSU is +35.9 points. Home/Road TO Margin? LSU is +11. What does it mean? LSU 31, Ole Miss 13.

Tennessee -9.5 @ Vanderbilt
I am going to ride the Vanderbilt is completely terrible train until Vanderbilt proves me wrong. Vanderbilt’s offense is currently acting like it belongs in a lower level. Vanderbilt’s defense is bottom of the FBS bad. As such? The Tyler Bray love train continues. Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 7.

Troy +22 @ South Carolina
Here’s why the Trojans will cover. Never mind the fact that their defense is doughy and has give to it. South Carolina is going to be playing vanilla, win and go home sort of football. And for what it’s worth? Troy’s offense is very good. They generate sacks and turnovers as well. South Carolina wins. But? South Carolina 35, Troy 27, on a late Troy touchdown.

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas; Prediction Pick 2010

Posted: 19 Nov 2010 05:56 PM PST

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas; Prediction Pick 2010

I have to respect Arkansas. For a team with so few high expectations after October 16th? They have done some real powerful things. After all, they went into South Carolina and punched them in the face.

In the face.

But Arkansas is a team that’s got a night game. It’s in Starkville. Strange things happen in Mississippi at night. Vegas moved this line toward the Bulldogs as the week’s worn on. In the immortal words of the man who would be Ole Miss’ mascot, yeah, you know.

But is it really a trap? Is it really?

There are legitimate statistical reasons as to why the Bulldogs are the sort of team that can win. They’re 18th ranked running game is against the marginally bad rush defense of Arkansas. Ryan Mallett has a propensity to throw picks this year, and Mississippi State has a good +/- margin of turnovers, and are good for one pick a game.

That right there will mitigate their shaky pass defense.

And in terms of discipline? Arkansas is 116th in penalties and 114th in penalty yardage. A bit of home cooking will make matters such as that interesting. Nevertheless, Arkansas is the sort of team that’s not going to be upset.

Because here’s the thing. Knile Davis is for real. Since he had a strong 10 carries against Texas A&M (13th ranked D vs. the run), he’s gone crazy go nuts running the ball. Mississippi State’s defense is going to be a challenge, but he’s come up big against good rush defenses before.

See: South Carolina.

Knile Davis is the reason why Ryan Mallett’s flying under the radar right now. Knile Davis is the reason why nobody of note is talking about how the Bulldogs are 79th against the pass. Because Arkansas?

They can throw the ball around the field. Just a little bit. And that is why?

*rips off arm*

I am going with Arkansas as my pick to click. Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 20.