Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Sports World

Honda Classic gives Masters clues
Poet's now a possible World Cup contender
Newbury gallops highlight some major Festival contenders
Five Novice Hurdle statistics to consider

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 07:09 AM PST

Time is running out for players to get into decent form ahead of the Masters. With just over a month to go before the first tee-off at Augusta, many leading players are leaving it late to find the necessary rhythm required for a serious title challenge at the season's first major.

Only five of the world's top 10 chose to enter the Honda Classic and of these only Graeme McDowell, Luke Donald and Matt Kuchar left Florida with any real satisfaction. Lee Westwood missed the chance to regain the top ranking, a third round 75 contributing to a +4 finish in joint 29th.

Rory McIlroy fared even worse, nightmare respective third and fourth round scores of 77 and 75 leaving him 25 shots adrift of winner Rory Sabbatini. Horror form like this - only four players who made the cut carded higher scores - would dent confidence of anyone and the young Ulsterman must be frustrated at his inconsistent form so far this season. The golf odds suggest he's in with a chance at the Masters, but not if he plays like that.

McDowell's final round 64 meant he finished three shots behind the winner, whilst Donald also finished strongly with a 66. Kuchar was steadier throughout, carding between 69 and 72 on each round.

Apart from these two Brits, YE Yang was the only other top-50 player to finish under par at Palm Beach Gardens, the world 29 finishing a stroke behind Sabbatini after making up four strokes on the final round.

The South Korean's performance was held together by some fine putting – of the top 13 finishers only Ricky Barnes had a worse driving accuracy than Yang – and form on the greens is crucial at Augusta, where Yang performed well last year, finishing joint 8th. He will of course need to hit more fairways than he did last week.
Sabbatini has also flourished at the Masters, recording his best ever major finish of joint second in 2007. The South African averaged two putts per green in regulation at Palm Beach, a figure he will need to reduce to feature amongst the leaders in the Masters.

Poet's now a possible World Cup contender

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:54 AM PST

Following a tremendous seasonal reappearance when only just denied by Wigmore Hall in the Group 2 Jebel Hatta at Meydan on March 3, Godolphin's high-class Poet's Voice is now under consideration for a crack at the Dubai World Cup back at the state-of-the-art racetrack on March 26, writes Elliot Slater.

The 122-rated four-year-old colt had not been seen in competitive action since finishing down the field when almost certainly 'over the top' in October's Group 1 Emirates Airlines Champion Stakes at Newmarket, a race won by Henry Cecil's Twice Over, now 7/2 ante-post favourite for the World Cup following a fine victory on the same Meydan card last week. Prior to his Newmarket flop the son of Dubawi had got the better of a sensational dual with Aidan O'Brien's Rip Van Winkle in the Group 1 QEII Stakes at Ascot in September, a race that confirmed him as one of the best milers in the business and anyone looking to bet on horse racing should take note.

In a blanket finish to the Meydan contest Saeed bin Suroor's charge came with what appeared to be a perfectly timed run under Frankie Dettori, challenging down the centre of the track and taking up the running 100 yards out, only to be nabbed by Michael Bell's Wigmore Hall in the shadow of the post, going under by a neck, with a nose back to the third-placed favourite Presvis, trained by Luca Cumani.

With plenty of improvement to come, bin Suroor has now opened up the option of running in the World Cup having initially been targeting the Dubai Duty Free. Poet's Voice has never run on the artificial Tapeta surface but his performance in the desert night suggested he would see out the extra furlong of the $10 million contest under the new underfoot conditions.

Bookmakers have introduced the Godolphin horse at around 10/1 in the ante-post market for the world's richest race.

Newbury gallops highlight some major Festival contenders

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:39 AM PST

Newbury's meeting on Saturday March 5th may not have highlighted too many Cheltenham Festival clues in the races that were staged, mainly due to its close proximity to the start of the Cotswold extravaganza. However a series of gallops that took place on the racecourse on Sunday morning may well seen a few potential Festival winners on show and those looking at the Cheltenham racing betting should bear this in mind.

One such horse was the Warren Greatrex trained Knight Pass. The five-year-old is currently one at the top of most ante-post lists for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, and he certainly looked a worthy favourite as he put in a very impressive gallop under his big-race pilot Wayne Hutchinson.

Greatrex's stable star is unbeaten in two bumper starts, he won impressively at Sandown on his first start when he could count subsequent Grade 2 winning hurdler Sire De Grugy amongst his victims. He then followed up with a very cosy win on the turf at Southwell in early January, where he toyed with his opponents before running out a four-length winner. Anyone looking to bet on Cheltenham 2011 should take note of what was an impressive performance.

Since then his trainer has kept him ticking over at home in preparation for the Champion Bumper, and judged on his Newbury spin he has done a great job as he looks spot on and ready to run a very big race. Knight Pass runs in the colours of Malcolm Denmark who also owned the brilliant, but injury plagued, Monsignor who won the Festival Champion Bumper in 1999.

Five Novice Hurdle statistics to consider

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 03:01 AM PST

Statistics and trends are now part and parcel of the analysis of the Cheltenham Festival; here are five of the strongest from the novice hurdles that are worth considering. Those thinking about backing a Paul Nicholls horse should make sure they tick most of the boxes here.

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is by far Ireland's strongest race at the Festival and often gets them off to a string start to the meeting. Of all the races that leave for the Emerald Isle this is the one that is most exported with the Irish taking it home 18 times since 1977. They don't look to have as strong a team as usual this time by the Willie Mullins trained Zaidpour offers them hope of taking home the prize once more.

With favourite Cue Card likely to start at under 3/1, it's interesting to note that, the last four to start at under 3/1 in this race have all been beaten - Sweet Wake (2006) 5/2, Amaretto Rose (2007) 2/1, Cousin Vinny (2009) 9/4 and Dunguib (2010) 4/5 - the last two Cousin Vinny and Dunguib coming from the same route as Cue Card, impressive bumper winners to meeting top-class novices with questionable form in the book. That statistic alone must make backers think about taking under 3/1 on Cue Card in the Cheltenham betting.

In the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle age matters and those aged seven and older have struggled over the history of this race with French Holly the only winner in that age group since 1974. Conversely at the other end of the scale, no four year old has even made the frame, which given that they receive a 9lb allowance from their elders is quite some statistic.

The trends and statistics for the Triumph Hurdle have changed since the implementation of the "Fred Winter" race - since then all six winners have been found in the first four in the betting, and we would also strongly disregard horses that were beaten last time out.

Finally, for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle course form is important in this one and five of the six winners had run at Cheltenham before. Only last year's shock winner Bertie's Dream had not finished first or second last time out.

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